Over 1.5 goals@1.13
Over 1.5
88%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 11Monday, 19 October 2026 · De Herdgang
Jong PSV U21
13th · 16 pts0–1FULL TIME
Dordrecht
19th · 11 pts63% Jong
19% Draw
19% Dordrecht
OUR PICK
Jong PSV U21 to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.60
Expected goals
2.43 – 1.28
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.60X5.3925.30
Goals 2.5Over1.40Under3.37
Both scoreGG1.52NG2.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.40
Over 2.5
72%
Both teams to score@1.52
GG
66%
Double chance@1.23
12
81%
Season stats
Jong PSV U21Dordrecht1.3Goals per game1.4
1.6Conceded per game2.6
1.23Points per game0.85
31%Win rate23%
-4Goal difference-16
4Form, last 5 (pts)4
Jong PSV U21 form
WWLDLA Ipswich Town U210–7
A FC Eindhoven1–2
H Dordrecht0–1
A Roda1–1
A Vitesse3–1
Dordrecht form
LLLWLA Jong Utrecht3–2
A SC Genemuiden3–2
H VVV Venlo2–4
A Jong PSV U210–1
H Emmen0–3
Head to head
1
Jong
1
Draw
3
Dordrecht
Oct 2026Jong PSV U21 – Dordrecht0–1
Feb 2026Jong PSV U21 – Dordrecht1–1
Aug 2025Dordrecht – Jong PSV U211–2
Feb 2025Jong PSV U21 – Dordrecht1–2
Oct 2024Dordrecht – Jong PSV U212–0
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles13+2532
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda13+524
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse13-118
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Jong PSV U21 clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.60 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (2.43 for Jong PSV U21, 1.28 for Dordrecht), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Jong PSV U21 sit 13th on 16 points; Dordrecht are 19th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.