Over 1.5 goals@1.09
Over 1.5
91%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 12Friday, 23 October 2026 · AFAS Trainingscomplex
Jong AZ
10th · 17 pts5–4FULL TIME
Helmond Sport
17th · 12 pts58% Jong
19% Draw
23% Helmond
OUR PICK
Jong AZ to win
Model probability 58% · fair odds
1.73
Expected goals
2.51 – 1.58
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.73X5.3424.26
Goals 2.5Over1.29Under4.10
Both scoreGG1.37NG3.49
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.29
Over 2.5
77%
Both teams to score@1.37
GG
73%
Double chance@1.23
12
81%
Season stats
Jong AZHelmond Sport2.5Goals per game1.8
2.2Conceded per game2.2
1.31Points per game0.92
38%Win rate23%
4Goal difference-5
7Form, last 5 (pts)4
Jong AZ form
LWDLWA Roda2–1
H Helmond Sport5–4
A VVV Venlo4–4
H Den Bosch0–1
H FC Volendam4–1
Helmond Sport form
WLLLLH FC Eindhoven3–2
H Willem II3–4
A Jong AZ5–4
H NAC Breda0–2
A FC OSS3–1
Head to head
2
Jong
0
Draw
3
Helmond
Oct 2026Jong AZ – Helmond Sport5–4
Apr 2026Jong AZ – Helmond Sport2–0
Oct 2025Helmond Sport – Jong AZ4–2
Jan 2025Helmond Sport – Jong AZ2–1
Oct 2024Jong AZ – Helmond Sport2–3
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Jong AZ clear favourites, giving them a 58% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.73 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.1 goals in total (2.51 for Jong AZ, 1.58 for Helmond Sport), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Jong AZ sit 10th on 17 points; Helmond Sport are 17th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.