Over 1.5 goals@1.06
Over 1.5
95%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 10Friday, 9 October 2026 · AFAS Trainingscomplex
Jong AZ
10th · 17 pts0–1FULL TIME
Den Bosch
8th · 18 pts54% Jong
18% Draw
28% Den
OUR PICK
Jong AZ to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.85
Expected goals
2.70 – 1.94
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.85X5.4923.62
Goals 2.5Over1.19Under5.90
Both scoreGG1.25NG4.72
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.19
Over 2.5
84%
Both teams to score@1.25
GG
80%
Double chance@1.22
12
82%
Season stats
Jong AZDen Bosch2.5Goals per game1.8
2.2Conceded per game1.6
1.31Points per game1.38
38%Win rate38%
4Goal difference2
7Form, last 5 (pts)11
Jong AZ form
LWDLWA Roda2–1
H Helmond Sport5–4
A VVV Venlo4–4
H Den Bosch0–1
H FC Volendam4–1
Den Bosch form
WWDWWA Emmen0–5
A Rijnsburgse Boys3–5
H MVV2–2
H FC OSS2–1
A Jong AZ0–1
Head to head
1
Jong
2
Draw
2
Den
Oct 2026Jong AZ – Den Bosch0–1
Feb 2026Jong AZ – Den Bosch2–2
Sept 2025Den Bosch – Jong AZ2–3
Apr 2025Jong AZ – Den Bosch0–0
Aug 2024Den Bosch – Jong AZ6–0
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles13+2532
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda13+524
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse13-118
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Jong AZ slight favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.85 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.6 goals in total (2.70 for Jong AZ, 1.94 for Den Bosch), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Jong AZ sit 10th on 17 points; Den Bosch are 8th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.