Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 14Friday, 6 November 2026 · AFAS Trainingscomplex
Jong AZ
10th · 17 pts20:00KICK-OFF WAT
Almere City FC
3rd · 25 pts32% Jong
21% Draw
47% Almere
OUR PICK
Almere City FC to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.15
Expected goals
1.71 – 2.07
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.09X4.7422.15
Goals 2.5Over1.37Under3.49
Both scoreGG1.40NG3.37
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.37
Over 2.5
73%
Both teams to score@1.40
GG
72%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
Jong AZAlmere City FC2.5Goals per game2.1
2.2Conceded per game1.0
1.31Points per game1.92
38%Win rate62%
4Goal difference14
7Form, last 5 (pts)9
Jong AZ form
LWDLWA Roda2–1
H Helmond Sport5–4
A VVV Venlo4–4
H Den Bosch0–1
H FC Volendam4–1
Almere City FC form
WWLLWA Waalwijk1–2
A Telstar0–2
H Roda2–3
A Emmen2–1
H FC Eindhoven3–0
Head to head
2
Jong
0
Draw
3
Almere
Jan 2026Jong AZ – Almere City FC3–4
Oct 2025Almere City FC – Jong AZ1–3
Apr 2023Almere City FC – Jong AZ2–1
Aug 2022Jong AZ – Almere City FC3–2
Jul 2022Jong AZ – Almere City FC1–3
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Almere City FC slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.15 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (1.71 for Jong AZ, 2.07 for Almere City FC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Jong AZ sit 10th on 17 points; Almere City FC are 3rd on 25.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.