NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 10Friday, 9 October 2026 · Sportpark De Toekomst

Jong Ajax

16th · 13 pts

0–3FULL TIME

VVV Venlo

2nd · 28 pts

25% Jong

18% Draw

56% VVV

OUR PICK

VVV Venlo to win

Model probability 56% · fair odds

1.77

Expected goals

1.80 – 2.68

Confidence

Medium

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X213.94X5.5121.77

Goals 2.5Over1.22Under5.24

Both scoreGG1.29NG4.29

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.07

Over 1.5

94%

Over/Under 2.5@1.22

Over 2.5

82%

Both teams to score@1.29

78%

Double chance@1.22

82%

Season stats

Jong AjaxVVV Venlo

1.5Goals per game2.8

2.3Conceded per game1.6

1.00Points per game2.15

23%Win rate69%

-11Goal difference15

6Form, last 5 (pts)13

Jong Ajax form

DDWLD

H Vitesse1–1

A FC OSS3–3

H De Graafschap2–1

H VVV Venlo0–3

H Roda0–0

VVV Venlo form

WLWDW

A MVV1–2

H Vitesse0–2

A Dordrecht2–4

H Jong AZ4–4

A Jong Ajax0–3

Head to head

Jong

Draw

VVV

Oct 2026Jong Ajax – VVV Venlo0–3

Mar 2026VVV Venlo – Jong Ajax0–1

Sept 2025Jong Ajax – VVV Venlo2–4

Mar 2025VVV Venlo – Jong Ajax1–0

Nov 2024Jong Ajax – VVV Venlo0–1

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Heracles13+2532

2VVV Venlo13+1528

3Almere City FC13+1425

4Roda13+525

5Emmen13+225

6NAC Breda13+524

7FC Volendam13+819

8Den Bosch13+218

9Vitesse13-118

10Jong AZ13+417

Match preview

Our model makes VVV Venlo clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.77 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 4.5 goals in total (1.80 for Jong Ajax, 2.68 for VVV Venlo), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Jong Ajax sit 16th on 13 points; VVV Venlo are 2nd on 28.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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