Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 13Monday, 2 November 2026 · Sportpark De Toekomst
Jong Ajax
16th · 12 pts20:00KICK-OFF WAT
Vitesse
8th · 17 pts35% Jong
24% Draw
41% Vitesse
OUR PICK
Vitesse to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.43
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.63
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.85X4.2222.43
Goals 2.5Over1.66Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.61NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.61
GG
62%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
Jong AjaxVitesse1.5Goals per game1.3
2.4Conceded per game1.4
1.00Points per game1.42
25%Win rate42%
-11Goal difference-1
5Form, last 5 (pts)4
Jong Ajax form
No recent matches.
Vitesse form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Jong
0
Draw
0
Vitesse
These sides haven't met recently.
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Emmen12+725
4Almere City FC13+1425
5Roda13+525
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Vitesse12-117
9Jong AZ13+417
10MVV13-1217
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Jong Ajax 35%, the draw 24%, Vitesse 41%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.49 for Jong Ajax, 1.63 for Vitesse), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Jong Ajax sit 16th on 12 points; Vitesse are 8th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.