Over 1.5 goals@1.15
Over 1.5
87%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 11Monday, 19 October 2026 · Sportpark De Toekomst
Jong Ajax
16th · 13 pts2–1FULL TIME
De Graafschap
14th · 15 pts44% Jong
22% Draw
34% De
OUR PICK
Jong Ajax to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.25
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.63
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.25X4.5422.98
Goals 2.5Over1.46Under2.95
Both scoreGG1.46NG2.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.46
Over 2.5
68%
Both teams to score@1.46
GG
68%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
Jong AjaxDe Graafschap1.5Goals per game1.3
2.3Conceded per game2.1
1.00Points per game1.15
23%Win rate31%
-11Goal difference-10
6Form, last 5 (pts)8
Jong Ajax form
DDWLDH Vitesse1–1
A FC OSS3–3
H De Graafschap2–1
H VVV Venlo0–3
H Roda0–0
De Graafschap form
WLDLWA FC Volendam1–2
A Roda1–0
H Waalwijk1–1
A Jong Ajax2–1
H Jong Utrecht2–1
Head to head
2
Jong
1
Draw
2
De
Oct 2026Jong Ajax – De Graafschap2–1
Feb 2026De Graafschap – Jong Ajax4–0
Oct 2025Jong Ajax – De Graafschap2–2
Apr 2025De Graafschap – Jong Ajax2–0
Dec 2024Jong Ajax – De Graafschap2–0
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles13+2532
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda13+524
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse13-118
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Jong Ajax slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.25 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (1.90 for Jong Ajax, 1.63 for De Graafschap), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Jong Ajax sit 16th on 13 points; De Graafschap are 14th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.