Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
NOR2. Division - Group 1 · Matchday 24Sunday, 18 October 2026
jerv
1st · 59 pts4–3FULL TIME
Sotra
5th · 48 pts45% jerv
23% Draw
31% Sotra
OUR PICK
jerv to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.20
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.41
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.20X4.2923.20
Goals 2.5Over1.64Under2.42
Both scoreGG1.60NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.64
Over 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.60
GG
62%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
jervSotra2.3Goals per game2.4
1.2Conceded per game1.2
2.27Points per game1.85
69%Win rate58%
30Goal difference30
8Form, last 5 (pts)9
jerv form
WLWDDH Eik-Tønsberg7–0
A Bjarg4–0
H Sotra4–3
H Arendal2–2
A Lysekloster3–3
Sotra form
WWLWLA Lysekloster1–4
H Notodden5–2
A jerv4–3
H Kvik Halden3–0
A Brattvåg3–2
Head to head
3
jerv
1
Draw
1
Sotra
Oct 2026jerv – Sotra4–3
Jun 2026Sotra – jerv1–3
Oct 2025jerv – Sotra2–0
Jun 2025Sotra – jerv2–1
Jul 2024jerv – Sotra1–1
2. Division - Group 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1jerv26+3059
2Bjarg26+2954
3Mjondalen26+1653
4Brattvåg26+2051
5Sotra26+3048
6Notodden26+838
7Træff26-638
8Kvik Halden26+137
9Arendal26-631
10Pors Grenland26-530
Match preview
Our model makes jerv slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.20 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.74 for jerv, 1.41 for Sotra), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
jerv sit 1st on 59 points; Sotra are 5th on 48.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.