Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
NOR2. Division - Group 1 · Matchday 23Saturday, 10 October 2026
jerv
1st · 59 pts2–2FULL TIME
Arendal
9th · 31 pts71% jerv
17% Draw
12% Arendal
OUR PICK
jerv to win
Model probability 71% · fair odds
1.42
Expected goals
2.41 – 0.90
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.42X5.8428.16
Goals 2.5Over1.56Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.85NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.56
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.85
GG
54%
Double chance@1.14
1X
88%
Season stats
jervArendal2.3Goals per game1.4
1.2Conceded per game1.6
2.27Points per game1.19
69%Win rate31%
30Goal difference-6
8Form, last 5 (pts)5
jerv form
WLWDDH Eik-Tønsberg7–0
A Bjarg4–0
H Sotra4–3
H Arendal2–2
A Lysekloster3–3
Arendal form
LDWDLH Mjondalen1–2
A Træff0–0
H Eik-Tønsberg3–0
A jerv2–2
A Sandviken1–0
Head to head
1
jerv
2
Draw
2
Arendal
Oct 2026jerv – Arendal2–2
May 2026Arendal – jerv1–2
Mar 2026Arendal – jerv3–3
Oct 2025Arendal – jerv3–1
Aug 2025Arendal – jerv3–2
2. Division - Group 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1jerv26+3059
2Bjarg26+2954
3Mjondalen26+1653
4Brattvåg26+2051
5Sotra26+3048
6Notodden26+838
7Træff26-638
8Kvik Halden26+137
9Arendal26-631
10Pors Grenland26-530
Match preview
Our model makes jerv clear favourites, giving them a 71% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.42 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (2.41 for jerv, 0.90 for Arendal), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
jerv sit 1st on 59 points; Arendal are 9th on 31.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.