Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 9Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Fukuda Denshi Arena
JEF United Chiba
18th · 10 pts1–1FULL TIME
V-varen Nagasaki
15th · 12 pts40% JEF
25% Draw
35% V-varen
OUR PICK
JEF United Chiba to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.51
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.41
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.51X4.0622.82
Goals 2.5Over1.79Under2.14
Both scoreGG1.70NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.79
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.70
GG
59%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
JEF United ChibaV-varen Nagasaki1.2Goals per game1.2
1.8Conceded per game1.6
0.77Points per game0.92
15%Win rate23%
-9Goal difference-5
6Form, last 5 (pts)4
JEF United Chiba form
WDLDDH Avispa Fukuoka3–0
A Cerezo Osaka2–2
A Urawa3–2
H Yokohama F. Marinos0–0
H V-varen Nagasaki1–1
V-varen Nagasaki form
LLWLDH Tokyo Verdy1–2
A Urawa1–0
H Sanfrecce Hiroshima4–0
A Kashima2–0
A JEF United Chiba1–1
Head to head
0
JEF
1
Draw
4
V-varen
Oct 2026JEF United Chiba – V-varen Nagasaki1–1
Oct 2025JEF United Chiba – V-varen Nagasaki0–2
May 2025V-varen Nagasaki – JEF United Chiba1–0
Nov 2024JEF United Chiba – V-varen Nagasaki1–2
May 2024V-varen Nagasaki – JEF United Chiba1–0
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: JEF United Chiba 40%, the draw 25%, V-varen Nagasaki 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.51 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.51 for JEF United Chiba, 1.41 for V-varen Nagasaki), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
JEF United Chiba sit 18th on 10 points; V-varen Nagasaki are 15th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.