Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 13Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Fukuda Denshi Arena
JEF United Chiba
18th · 10 pts3–0FULL TIME
Avispa Fukuoka
20th · 7 pts48% JEF
25% Draw
27% Avispa
OUR PICK
JEF United Chiba to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.08
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.17
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.08X4.0823.65
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.80NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.80
GG
55%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
JEF United ChibaAvispa Fukuoka1.2Goals per game1.0
1.8Conceded per game1.8
0.77Points per game0.54
15%Win rate15%
-9Goal difference-11
6Form, last 5 (pts)3
JEF United Chiba form
WDLDDH Avispa Fukuoka3–0
A Cerezo Osaka2–2
A Urawa3–2
H Yokohama F. Marinos0–0
H V-varen Nagasaki1–1
Avispa Fukuoka form
LLLLLA JEF United Chiba3–0
A Tokyo Verdy3–1
H Gamba Osaka1–2
A Machida Zelvia3–0
A Sagan Tosu2–1
Head to head
1
JEF
2
Draw
2
Avispa
Nov 2026JEF United Chiba – Avispa Fukuoka3–0
Jun 2026JEF United Chiba – Avispa Fukuoka1–2
May 2026Avispa Fukuoka – JEF United Chiba2–2
Oct 2020Avispa Fukuoka – JEF United Chiba1–0
Sept 2020JEF United Chiba – Avispa Fukuoka2–2
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes JEF United Chiba slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.08 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.63 for JEF United Chiba, 1.17 for Avispa Fukuoka), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
JEF United Chiba sit 18th on 10 points; Avispa Fukuoka are 20th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.