Over 1.5 goals@1.47
Over 1.5
68%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 14Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estadio Jaraguay
Jaguares
16th · 18 pts3–2FULL TIME
Deportes Tolima
6th · 31 pts18% Jaguares
25% Draw
57% Deportes
OUR PICK
Deportes Tolima to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.77
Expected goals
0.77 – 1.58
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.51X3.9721.77
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.72
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.74
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.74
NG
57%
Double chance@1.22
X2
82%
Season stats
JaguaresDeportes Tolima1.1Goals per game1.4
1.7Conceded per game0.9
0.95Points per game1.63
26%Win rate42%
-13Goal difference10
6Form, last 5 (pts)2
Jaguares form
LWLLWA Deportivo Pereira1–0
H Llaneros1–0
A Santa Fe2–1
A Millonarios4–1
H Deportes Tolima3–2
Deportes Tolima form
LLLDDH Deportivo Pasto0–1
A Águilas Doradas2–1
A Jaguares3–2
A Atletico Nacional0–0
H Chico0–0
Head to head
0
Jaguares
0
Draw
0
Deportes
These sides haven't met recently.
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes Deportes Tolima clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.77 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (0.77 for Jaguares, 1.58 for Deportes Tolima), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Jaguares sit 16th on 18 points; Deportes Tolima are 6th on 31.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.