Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
77%
POLEkstraklasa · Matchday 12Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku
Jagiellonia
9th · 18 pts1–0FULL TIME
Wisla Plock
12th · 15 pts50% Jagiellonia
24% Draw
26% Wisla
OUR PICK
Jagiellonia to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.01
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.15
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.01X4.1423.83
Goals 2.5Over1.86Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.80NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.80
GG
56%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
JagielloniaWisla Plock1.4Goals per game1.0
1.5Conceded per game1.5
1.50Points per game1.25
50%Win rate33%
-1Goal difference-6
6Form, last 5 (pts)7
Jagiellonia form
WWWLLA Wieczysta Kraków1–3
A Lechia Gdansk0–6
H Wisla Plock1–0
H Anderlecht0–3
A Zaglebie Lubin1–0
Wisla Plock form
DWLWLH Piast Gliwice2–2
A Puszcza Niepołomice1–2
A Jagiellonia1–0
H Radomiak Radom1–0
A Wieczysta Kraków3–0
Head to head
3
Jagiellonia
0
Draw
2
Wisla
Oct 2026Jagiellonia – Wisla Plock1–0
Mar 2026Jagiellonia – Wisla Plock1–2
Sept 2025Wisla Plock – Jagiellonia0–1
Apr 2023Wisla Plock – Jagiellonia2–4
Jan 2023Wisla Plock – Jagiellonia3–1
Ekstraklasa table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lech Poznan12+2131
2Gornik Zabrze13+1028
3Legia Warszawa13+1224
4Pogon Szczecin11+1024
5GKS Katowice13+621
6Piast Gliwice13+421
7Wisla Krakow13+221
8Zaglebie Lubin12019
9Jagiellonia12-118
10Korona Kielce12-418
Match preview
Our model makes Jagiellonia slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.01 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.68 for Jagiellonia, 1.15 for Wisla Plock), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Jagiellonia sit 9th on 18 points; Wisla Plock are 12th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.