Over 1.5 goals@1.47
Over 1.5
68%
POLEkstraklasa · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Chorten Arena
Jagiellonia
9th · 18 pts1–3FULL TIME
Gornik Zabrze
2nd · 28 pts32% Jagiellonia
28% Draw
40% Gornik
OUR PICK
Gornik Zabrze to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.52
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.25
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.09X3.5822.52
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.72
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.91
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.91
NG
52%
Double chance@1.39
12
72%
Season stats
JagielloniaGornik Zabrze1.4Goals per game1.6
1.5Conceded per game0.8
1.50Points per game2.15
50%Win rate62%
-1Goal difference10
6Form, last 5 (pts)7
Jagiellonia form
WWWLLA Wieczysta Kraków1–3
A Lechia Gdansk0–6
H Wisla Plock1–0
H Anderlecht0–3
A Zaglebie Lubin1–0
Gornik Zabrze form
DDDDWH Legia Warszawa0–0
A Piast Gliwice0–0
A Widzew Łódź1–1
H Piast Gliwice1–1
A Jagiellonia1–3
Head to head
1
Jagiellonia
1
Draw
3
Gornik
Oct 2026Jagiellonia – Gornik Zabrze1–3
Apr 2026Jagiellonia – Gornik Zabrze1–2
Oct 2025Gornik Zabrze – Jagiellonia2–1
May 2025Jagiellonia – Gornik Zabrze1–1
Nov 2024Gornik Zabrze – Jagiellonia0–2
Ekstraklasa table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lech Poznan12+2131
2Gornik Zabrze13+1028
3Legia Warszawa13+1224
4Pogon Szczecin11+1024
5GKS Katowice13+621
6Piast Gliwice13+421
7Wisla Krakow13+221
8Zaglebie Lubin12019
9Jagiellonia12-118
10Korona Kielce12-418
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Jagiellonia 32%, the draw 28%, Gornik Zabrze 40%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.52 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.10 for Jagiellonia, 1.25 for Gornik Zabrze), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Jagiellonia sit 9th on 18 points; Gornik Zabrze are 2nd on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.