Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
79%
JPNJ2 League · Matchday 11Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Iwaki Greenfield
Iwaki
8th · 20 pts5–0FULL TIME
Ventforet Kofu
20th · 12 pts60% Iwaki
21% Draw
18% Ventforet
OUR PICK
Iwaki to win
Model probability 60% · fair odds
1.66
Expected goals
1.97 – 0.98
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.66X4.6725.49
Goals 2.5Over1.77Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.86NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.77
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.86
GG
54%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
IwakiVentforet Kofu1.6Goals per game0.8
1.4Conceded per game2.0
1.43Points per game0.86
43%Win rate21%
3Goal difference-17
11Form, last 5 (pts)5
Iwaki form
WDDWWA Tochigi City1–3
H Jubilo Iwata1–1
A Shonan Bellmare1–1
H Ventforet Kofu5–0
H Blaublitz Akita1–0
Ventforet Kofu form
DDLLWA Imabari1–1
A Oita Trinita1–1
H Yokohama FC0–3
A Iwaki5–0
H Tochigi City2–1
Head to head
2
Iwaki
0
Draw
3
Ventforet
Oct 2026Iwaki – Ventforet Kofu5–0
May 2026Iwaki – Ventforet Kofu0–1
Mar 2026Ventforet Kofu – Iwaki0–1
Sept 2025Iwaki – Ventforet Kofu2–3
Apr 2025Ventforet Kofu – Iwaki1–0
J2 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vegalta Sendai14+1027
2Albirex Niigata14-326
3Kataller Toyama14+1225
4Yokohama FC14+1025
5Omiya Ardija14+824
6Tegevajaro Miyazaki14+523
7Shonan Bellmare14+222
8Iwaki14+320
9Consadole Sapporo14-220
10Oita Trinita14+519
Match preview
Our model makes Iwaki clear favourites, giving them a 60% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.66 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.97 for Iwaki, 0.98 for Ventforet Kofu), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Iwaki sit 8th on 20 points; Ventforet Kofu are 20th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.