Over 1.5 goals@1.43
Over 1.5
70%
JPNJ2 League · Matchday 16Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Iwaki Greenfield
Iwaki
8th · 20 pts06:00KICK-OFF WAT
Montedio Yamagata
16th · 16 pts48% Iwaki
27% Draw
26% Montedio
OUR PICK
Iwaki to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.09
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.98
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.09X3.7723.92
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.78
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.92
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.78
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.92
NG
52%
Double chance@1.34
1X
74%
Season stats
IwakiMontedio Yamagata1.6Goals per game0.9
1.4Conceded per game1.0
1.43Points per game1.14
43%Win rate36%
3Goal difference-1
11Form, last 5 (pts)4
Iwaki form
WDDWWA Tochigi City1–3
H Jubilo Iwata1–1
A Shonan Bellmare1–1
H Ventforet Kofu5–0
H Blaublitz Akita1–0
Montedio Yamagata form
WLLDLA Vanraure Hachinohe1–2
H Tegevajaro Miyazaki0–2
H Consadole Sapporo0–2
A Fujieda MYFC0–0
H Vegalta Sendai0–1
Head to head
1
Iwaki
1
Draw
3
Montedio
Aug 2025Montedio Yamagata – Iwaki1–0
Apr 2025Iwaki – Montedio Yamagata0–1
Jul 2024Montedio Yamagata – Iwaki1–2
Mar 2024Iwaki – Montedio Yamagata0–0
Nov 2023Iwaki – Montedio Yamagata1–3
J2 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vegalta Sendai14+1027
2Albirex Niigata14-326
3Kataller Toyama14+1225
4Yokohama FC14+1025
5Omiya Ardija14+824
6Tegevajaro Miyazaki14+523
7Shonan Bellmare14+222
8Iwaki14+320
9Consadole Sapporo14-220
10Oita Trinita14+519
Match preview
Our model makes Iwaki slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.09 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.45 for Iwaki, 0.98 for Montedio Yamagata), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Iwaki sit 8th on 20 points; Montedio Yamagata are 16th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.