Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
CROHNL · Matchday 13Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Stadion Aldo Drosina
Istra 1961
6th · 16 pts18:00KICK-OFF WAT
HNK Rijeka
5th · 18 pts46% Istra
23% Draw
31% HNK
OUR PICK
Istra 1961 to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.19
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.42
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.19X4.3223.21
Goals 2.5Over1.62Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.59NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.59
GG
63%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
Istra 1961HNK Rijeka1.8Goals per game1.6
1.5Conceded per game1.4
1.33Points per game1.64
33%Win rate45%
3Goal difference3
7Form, last 5 (pts)7
Istra 1961 form
WDLWLA NK Slaven Belupo0–2
H HNK Hajduk Split2–2
A NK Lokomotiva Zagreb2–0
A NK Osijek1–3
H HNK Gorica0–1
HNK Rijeka form
DLWWLH NK Varazdin1–1
A Dinamo Zagreb2–1
A Karlovac 19191–4
A Rudes1–2
A NK Slaven Belupo4–1
Head to head
1
Istra
2
Draw
2
HNK
Aug 2026HNK Rijeka – Istra 19613–2
May 2026Istra 1961 – HNK Rijeka0–0
Mar 2026HNK Rijeka – Istra 19610–2
Jan 2026Istra 1961 – HNK Rijeka1–2
Sept 2025HNK Rijeka – Istra 19610–0
HNL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1HNK Hajduk Split12+1526
2Dinamo Zagreb11+1122
3NK Osijek12+520
4NK Varazdin12+519
5HNK Rijeka11+318
6Istra 196112+316
7NK Slaven Belupo12-1113
8Rudes12-1213
9NK Lokomotiva Zagreb12-611
10HNK Gorica12-137
Match preview
Our model makes Istra 1961 slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.19 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.76 for Istra 1961, 1.42 for HNK Rijeka), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Istra 1961 sit 6th on 16 points; HNK Rijeka are 5th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.