Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
CROHNL · Matchday 11Monday, 26 October 2026 · Stadion Aldo Drosina
Istra 1961
6th · 16 pts2–2FULL TIME
HNK Hajduk Split
1st · 26 pts27% Istra
24% Draw
49% HNK
OUR PICK
HNK Hajduk Split to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.04
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.74
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.66X4.2422.04
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.71NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.71
GG
59%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
Istra 1961HNK Hajduk Split1.8Goals per game2.2
1.5Conceded per game0.9
1.33Points per game2.17
33%Win rate67%
3Goal difference15
7Form, last 5 (pts)10
Istra 1961 form
WDLWLA NK Slaven Belupo0–2
H HNK Hajduk Split2–2
A NK Lokomotiva Zagreb2–0
A NK Osijek1–3
H HNK Gorica0–1
HNK Hajduk Split form
WDWWWH HNK Gorica5–0
A Istra 19612–2
A FC Thun0–1
H NK Varazdin1–0
H Ajax2–1
Head to head
1
Istra
2
Draw
2
HNK
Oct 2026Istra 1961 – HNK Hajduk Split2–2
Aug 2026HNK Hajduk Split – Istra 19612–2
Apr 2026Istra 1961 – HNK Hajduk Split1–3
Jan 2026HNK Hajduk Split – Istra 19611–2
Oct 2025Istra 1961 – HNK Hajduk Split0–3
HNL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1HNK Hajduk Split12+1526
2Dinamo Zagreb11+1122
3NK Varazdin11+518
4NK Osijek11+317
5HNK Rijeka10+317
6Istra 196112+316
7NK Slaven Belupo12-1113
8Rudes12-1213
9NK Lokomotiva Zagreb11-411
10HNK Gorica12-137
Match preview
Our model makes HNK Hajduk Split slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.04 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.24 for Istra 1961, 1.74 for HNK Hajduk Split), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Istra 1961 sit 6th on 16 points; HNK Hajduk Split are 1st on 26.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.