Over 1.5 goals@1.41
Over 1.5
71%
BRASerie A · Matchday 34Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · Estádio Beira Rio
Internacional
18th · 35 pts01:30KICK-OFF WAT
Coritiba
11th · 42 pts46% Internacional
26% Draw
28% Coritiba
OUR PICK
Internacional to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.17
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.05
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.17X3.7823.63
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.83
Both scoreGG1.89NG1.98
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.83
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.98
NG
50%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
InternacionalCoritiba1.1Goals per game1.2
1.3Conceded per game1.5
1.06Points per game1.27
24%Win rate33%
-5Goal difference-10
7Form, last 5 (pts)4
Internacional form
LWLDWA Fluminense2–1
H Botafogo3–0
A Mirassol2–0
A Gremio1–1
H Corinthians2–1
Coritiba form
WLLDLH Vitoria2–0
H Gremio0–1
A Atletico-MG1–0
H Botafogo1–1
A Fluminense4–0
Head to head
2
Internacional
2
Draw
1
Coritiba
May 2026Coritiba – Internacional2–2
Oct 2023Internacional – Coritiba3–4
Jun 2023Coritiba – Internacional0–1
Oct 2022Coritiba – Internacional1–1
Jun 2022Internacional – Coritiba3–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8RB Bragantino34+547
9Santos34+147
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Internacional slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.17 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.44 for Internacional, 1.05 for Coritiba), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Internacional sit 18th on 35 points; Coritiba are 11th on 42.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.