WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Inter

20th · 3 pts

1–0FULL TIME

Shakhtar Donetsk

17th · 4 pts

36% Inter

21% Draw

44% Shakhtar

OUR PICK

Shakhtar Donetsk to win

Model probability 44% · fair odds

2.29

Expected goals

1.87 – 2.08

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.81X4.8122.29

Goals 2.5Over1.33Under3.77

Both scoreGG1.35NG3.63

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.11

Over 1.5

90%

Over/Under 2.5@1.33

Over 2.5

75%

Both teams to score@1.35

74%

Double chance@1.26

79%

Season stats

InterShakhtar Donetsk

1.7Goals per game1.3

2.0Conceded per game1.0

1.00Points per game1.33

33%Win rate33%

-1Goal difference1

3Form, last 5 (pts)4

Inter form

LWWWW

A AC Milan3–1

A Venezia0–2

H Fiorentina2–1

H Shakhtar Donetsk1–0

A Bologna1–3

Shakhtar Donetsk form

WWDLW

H Obolon'-Brovar2–0

H Dynamo Kyiv3–0

H Zorya Luhansk0–0

A Inter1–0

H Kolos Kovalivka2–1

Head to head

Inter

Draw

Shakhtar

Oct 2026Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk1–0

Nov 2021Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk2–0

Sept 2021Shakhtar Donetsk – Inter0–0

Dec 2020Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk0–0

Oct 2020Shakhtar Donetsk – Inter0–0

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Paris Saint Germain3+99

2Aston Villa3+99

3Liverpool3+59

4Real Madrid3+59

5Real Betis3+39

6VfB Stuttgart3+57

7Arsenal3+47

8Barcelona3+56

9Como3+56

10Manchester City3+46

Match preview

Our model sees little between the sides: Inter 36%, the draw 21%, Shakhtar Donetsk 44%.

Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.29 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 4.0 goals in total (1.87 for Inter, 2.08 for Shakhtar Donetsk), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Inter sit 20th on 3 points; Shakhtar Donetsk are 17th on 4.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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