Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
83%
ITASerie A · Matchday 6Saturday, 10 October 2026 · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
Inter
2nd · 25 pts3–0FULL TIME
Parma
18th · 5 pts73% Inter
16% Draw
10% Parma
OUR PICK
Inter to win
Model probability 73% · fair odds
1.36
Expected goals
2.43 – 0.79
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.36X6.1429.75
Goals 2.5Over1.61Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.89NG1.99
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.99
NG
50%
Double chance@1.11
1X
90%
Season stats
InterParma2.6Goals per game0.6
1.3Conceded per game1.7
2.50Points per game0.56
80%Win rate11%
13Goal difference-10
12Form, last 5 (pts)4
Inter form
LWWWWA AC Milan3–1
A Venezia0–2
H Fiorentina2–1
H Shakhtar Donetsk1–0
A Bologna1–3
Parma form
DLLLWH Udinese0–0
A Lazio2–1
H Torino0–3
A Inter3–0
H Genoa2–1
Head to head
4
Inter
1
Draw
0
Parma
Oct 2026Inter – Parma3–0
May 2026Inter – Parma2–0
Jan 2026Parma – Inter0–2
Apr 2025Parma – Inter2–2
Dec 2024Inter – Parma3–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio9+1525
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4AC Milan10+921
5Como9+920
6Frosinone9+817
7Napoli9+614
8Bologna10+114
9Juventus9+114
10Torino9013
Match preview
Our model makes Inter clear favourites, giving them a 73% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.36 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (2.43 for Inter, 0.79 for Parma), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Inter sit 2nd on 25 points; Parma are 18th on 5.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.