Over 1.5 goals@1.72
Over 1.5
58%
NGANPFL · Matchday 9Sunday, 18 October 2026
Inter Lagos
20th · 3 pts0–2FULL TIME
Nasarawa United
5th · 17 pts23% Inter
30% Draw
46% Nasarawa
OUR PICK
Nasarawa United to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.15
Expected goals
0.76 – 1.20
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.27X3.3122.15
Goals 2.5Over3.04Under1.45
Both scoreGG2.55NG1.59
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.45
Under 2.5
69%
Both teams to score@1.59
NG
63%
Double chance@1.31
X2
77%
Season stats
Inter LagosNasarawa United0.5Goals per game1.0
1.8Conceded per game0.9
0.27Points per game1.55
9%Win rate45%
-14Goal difference1
2Form, last 5 (pts)10
Inter Lagos form
DLLLDH Ranchers Bees1–1
A Kun Khalifat FC1–0
H Nasarawa United0–2
A Warri Wolves3–1
H Katsina United1–1
Nasarawa United form
LWWWDA Kano Pillars2–0
H Enyimba1–0
A Inter Lagos0–2
H Doma United2–0
A Shooting Stars0–0
Head to head
0
Inter
0
Draw
1
Nasarawa
Oct 2026Inter Lagos – Nasarawa United0–2
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model makes Nasarawa United slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.15 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (0.76 for Inter Lagos, 1.20 for Nasarawa United), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Inter Lagos sit 20th on 3 points; Nasarawa United are 5th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.