Over 1.5 goals@1.47
Over 1.5
68%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSaturday, 10 October 2026 · Michael A. Carroll Stadium
Indy Eleven
9th · 34 pts1–3FULL TIME
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1st · 61 pts24% Indy
27% Draw
49% Tampa
OUR PICK
Tampa Bay Rowdies to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.03
Expected goals
0.91 – 1.43
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.17X3.7222.03
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.71
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.83
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.83
NG
55%
Double chance@1.32
X2
76%
Season stats
Indy ElevenTampa Bay Rowdies1.2Goals per game1.7
1.4Conceded per game0.9
1.13Points per game2.03
30%Win rate60%
-6Goal difference26
1Form, last 5 (pts)9
Indy Eleven form
LLLDLA Charleston Battery1–0
A Louisville City4–1
H Tampa Bay Rowdies1–3
A Loudoun United1–1
A Rhode Island1–0
Tampa Bay Rowdies form
DWWWLH Miami FC1–1
H Sporting JAX2–0
H Detroit City1–0
A Indy Eleven1–3
H Miami FC1–2
Head to head
0
Indy
0
Draw
5
Tampa
Oct 2026Indy Eleven – Tampa Bay Rowdies1–3
May 2026Tampa Bay Rowdies – Indy Eleven1–0
Aug 2025Indy Eleven – Tampa Bay Rowdies1–3
Jun 2025Tampa Bay Rowdies – Indy Eleven3–1
Oct 2024Tampa Bay Rowdies – Indy Eleven3–0
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Tampa Bay Rowdies slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.03 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (0.91 for Indy Eleven, 1.43 for Tampa Bay Rowdies), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Indy Eleven sit 9th on 34 points; Tampa Bay Rowdies are 1st on 61.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.