Over 1.5 goals@1.28
Over 1.5
78%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 15Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Independiente Medellin
11th · 26 pts0–2FULL TIME
Once Caldas
5th · 33 pts42% Independiente
25% Draw
33% Once
OUR PICK
Independiente Medellin to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.39
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.35
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.39X4.0522.99
Goals 2.5Over1.81Under2.10
Both scoreGG1.72NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.81
Over 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.72
GG
58%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
Independiente MedellinOnce Caldas1.4Goals per game1.6
1.3Conceded per game1.2
1.37Points per game1.74
37%Win rate42%
2Goal difference9
6Form, last 5 (pts)11
Independiente Medellin form
WLLLLH Alianza Valledupar2–1
A Internacional de Bogota3–1
A Atletico Nacional2–1
H Once Caldas0–2
A Atletico Nacional3–2
Once Caldas form
WWDDWA Santa Fe0–2
H Alianza Valledupar1–0
H Deportivo Pereira1–1
A Millonarios1–1
A Independiente Medellin0–2
Head to head
3
Independiente
1
Draw
1
Once
Oct 2026Independiente Medellin – Once Caldas0–2
Apr 2026Once Caldas – Independiente Medellin1–1
Oct 2025Once Caldas – Independiente Medellin1–5
Apr 2025Independiente Medellin – Once Caldas2–0
Sept 2024Once Caldas – Independiente Medellin0–2
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Independiente Medellin 42%, the draw 25%, Once Caldas 33%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.39 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.54 for Independiente Medellin, 1.35 for Once Caldas), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Independiente Medellin sit 11th on 26 points; Once Caldas are 5th on 33.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.