Over 1.5 goals@1.46
Over 1.5
68%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 17Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Independiente Medellin
11th · 26 pts1–1LIVE 74'
Alianza Valledupar
17th · 17 pts61% Independiente
24% Draw
15% Alianza
OUR PICK
Independiente Medellin to win
Model probability 61% · fair odds
1.65
Expected goals
1.67 – 0.70
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.65X4.1826.51
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.73
Both scoreGG2.30NG1.69
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.73
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.69
NG
59%
Double chance@1.18
1X
85%
Season stats
Independiente MedellinAlianza Valledupar1.4Goals per game0.7
1.3Conceded per game1.4
1.37Points per game0.89
37%Win rate16%
2Goal difference-14
3Form, last 5 (pts)7
Independiente Medellin form
DLLLLH Alianza Valledupar1–1
A Internacional de Bogota3–1
A Atletico Nacional2–1
H Once Caldas0–2
A Atletico Nacional3–2
Alianza Valledupar form
DLWWDA Independiente Medellin1–1
A Once Caldas1–0
H Internacional de Bogota1–0
A Deportivo Pasto0–1
H Águilas Doradas2–2
Head to head
2
Independiente
3
Draw
0
Alianza
Nov 2026Independiente Medellin – Alianza Valledupar1–1
Apr 2026Alianza Valledupar – Independiente Medellin0–1
Jul 2025Independiente Medellin – Alianza Valledupar1–1
Jan 2025Alianza Valledupar – Independiente Medellin1–1
Oct 2024Independiente Medellin – Alianza Valledupar2–0
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes Independiente Medellin clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.65 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.67 for Independiente Medellin, 0.70 for Alianza Valledupar), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Independiente Medellin sit 11th on 26 points; Alianza Valledupar are 17th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.