Over 1.5 goals@1.41
Over 1.5
71%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 11Friday, 2 October 2026 · Libertadores de America
Independiente
5th · 24 pts1–4FULL TIME
Instituto Cordoba
9th · 21 pts57% Independiente
24% Draw
19% Instituto
OUR PICK
Independiente to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.76
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.83
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.76X4.0925.33
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.82
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.84
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.82
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.84
NG
54%
Double chance@1.23
1X
81%
Season stats
IndependienteInstituto Cordoba1.5Goals per game1.1
1.3Conceded per game1.1
1.50Points per game1.31
38%Win rate38%
4Goal difference0
3Form, last 5 (pts)11
Independiente form
DLDDLA Defensa Y Justicia1–1
H Boca Juniors0–1
A Racing Club1–1
A Talleres Cordoba0–0
H Instituto Cordoba1–4
Instituto Cordoba form
DWWDWA Estudiantes L.P.3–3
H Deportivo Riestra1–0
A Defensa Y Justicia0–1
H Boca Juniors2–2
A Independiente1–4
Head to head
1
Independiente
1
Draw
3
Instituto
Oct 2026Independiente – Instituto Cordoba1–4
Mar 2026Instituto Cordoba – Independiente2–1
Aug 2025Instituto Cordoba – Independiente0–0
Feb 2025Independiente – Instituto Cordoba2–0
Jul 2024Instituto Cordoba – Independiente3–1
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes Independiente clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.76 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.65 for Independiente, 0.83 for Instituto Cordoba), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Independiente sit 5th on 24 points; Instituto Cordoba are 9th on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.