Over 1.5 goals@1.96
Over 1.5
51%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 16Sunday, 8 November 2026
Independiente
5th · 24 pts22:00KICK-OFF WAT
Deportivo Riestra
15th · 11 pts55% Independiente
30% Draw
14% Deportivo
OUR PICK
Independiente to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.82
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.48
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.82X3.2826.91
Goals 2.5Over3.77Under1.33
Both scoreGG3.49NG1.37
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.33
Under 2.5
75%
Both teams to score@1.37
NG
73%
Double chance@1.17
1X
86%
Season stats
IndependienteDeportivo Riestra1.5Goals per game0.3
1.3Conceded per game0.8
1.50Points per game0.69
38%Win rate6%
4Goal difference-7
3Form, last 5 (pts)2
Independiente form
DLDDLA Defensa Y Justicia1–1
H Boca Juniors0–1
A Racing Club1–1
A Talleres Cordoba0–0
H Instituto Cordoba1–4
Deportivo Riestra form
LLDLDH Talleres Cordoba0–3
A Instituto Cordoba1–0
H Union Santa Fe1–1
A San Lorenzo1–0
H Central Cordoba de Santiago1–1
Head to head
2
Independiente
1
Draw
2
Deportivo
Apr 2026Deportivo Riestra – Independiente2–0
Nov 2025Deportivo Riestra – Independiente0–1
Apr 2025Independiente – Deportivo Riestra0–0
Oct 2024Independiente – Deportivo Riestra3–1
Mar 2024Deportivo Riestra – Independiente1–0
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes Independiente clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.82 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.7 goals in total (1.23 for Independiente, 0.48 for Deportivo Riestra), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Independiente sit 5th on 24 points; Deportivo Riestra are 15th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.