Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
71%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 14Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Libertadores de America
Independiente
5th · 24 pts0–1FULL TIME
Boca Juniors
2nd · 30 pts30% Independiente
27% Draw
44% Boca
OUR PICK
Boca Juniors to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.30
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.40
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.35X3.7622.30
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.85
Both scoreGG1.98NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.85
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.98
GG
51%
Double chance@1.36
12
73%
Season stats
IndependienteBoca Juniors1.5Goals per game1.4
1.3Conceded per game0.6
1.50Points per game1.88
38%Win rate50%
4Goal difference13
5Form, last 5 (pts)13
Independiente form
LDDLWH Boca Juniors0–1
A Racing Club1–1
A Talleres Cordoba0–0
H Instituto Cordoba1–4
A Union Santa Fe1–2
Boca Juniors form
WWWLDA Independiente0–1
A Vasco DA Gama1–3
H Talleres Cordoba2–1
H Vasco DA Gama0–1
A Instituto Cordoba2–2
Head to head
1
Independiente
2
Draw
2
Boca
Oct 2026Independiente – Boca Juniors0–1
Apr 2026Boca Juniors – Independiente1–1
May 2025Boca Juniors – Independiente0–1
Dec 2024Boca Juniors – Independiente0–0
Jul 2023Independiente – Boca Juniors0–2
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes Boca Juniors slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.30 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.11 for Independiente, 1.40 for Boca Juniors), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Independiente sit 5th on 24 points; Boca Juniors are 2nd on 30.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.