Over 1.5 goals@1.23
Over 1.5
81%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 11Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini
Independ. Rivadavia
1–1FULL TIME
Gimnasia L.P.
64% Independ.
20% Draw
16% Gimnasia
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Independ. Rivadavia to win
Model probability 64% · fair odds
1.55
Expected goals
2.14 – 0.96
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.55X5.0526.29
Goals 2.5Over1.67Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.84NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.67
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.84
GG
54%
Double chance@1.19
1X
84%
Independ. Rivadavia form
WLDLDH Banfield3–1
A Argentinos JRS1–0
H Tigre2–2
A Rosario Central5–0
H Gimnasia L.P.1–1
Gimnasia L.P. form
WWWDDA Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto1–2
H Sarmiento Junin2–0
A Huracan1–2
H Atletico Tucuman1–1
A Independ. Rivadavia1–1
Head to head
3
Independ.
1
Draw
1
Gimnasia
Oct 2026Independ. Rivadavia – Gimnasia L.P.1–1
Mar 2026Gimnasia L.P. – Independ. Rivadavia2–3
Jul 2024Independ. Rivadavia – Gimnasia L.P.1–0
Jan 2024Gimnasia L.P. – Independ. Rivadavia2–3
Mar 2013Gimnasia L.P. – Independ. Rivadavia3–0
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes Independ. Rivadavia clear favourites, giving them a 64% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.55 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (2.14 for Independ. Rivadavia, 0.96 for Gimnasia L.P.), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.