Over 1.5 goals@1.41
Over 1.5
71%
NGANPFL · Matchday 8Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Mobolaji Johnson Arena
Ikorodu City
13th · 14 pts2–0FULL TIME
Kwara United
15th · 12 pts42% Ikorodu
27% Draw
32% Kwara
OUR PICK
Ikorodu City to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.41
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.14
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.41X3.7223.17
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.83
Both scoreGG1.98NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.83
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.98
GG
50%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
Ikorodu CityKwara United1.4Goals per game1.1
1.2Conceded per game1.2
1.27Points per game1.09
27%Win rate27%
2Goal difference-1
5Form, last 5 (pts)5
Ikorodu City form
DDLWLA Doma United2–2
H Shooting Stars2–2
A Niger Tornadoes2–1
H Kwara United2–0
A Rivers United2–0
Kwara United form
LDDLWH Bendel Insurance1–2
A Barau FC1–1
H Abia Warriors1–1
A Ikorodu City2–0
H Ranchers Bees2–1
Head to head
3
Ikorodu
2
Draw
0
Kwara
Oct 2026Ikorodu City – Kwara United2–0
Jan 2026Ikorodu City – Kwara United1–0
Aug 2025Kwara United – Ikorodu City0–0
Feb 2025Ikorodu City – Kwara United2–1
Sept 2024Kwara United – Ikorodu City0–0
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model makes Ikorodu City slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.41 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.35 for Ikorodu City, 1.14 for Kwara United), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ikorodu City sit 13th on 14 points; Kwara United are 15th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.