Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
SWESuperettan · Matchday 26Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Finnvedsvallen
IFK Varnamo
10th · 35 pts1–2FULL TIME
Falkenbergs FF
2nd · 54 pts30% IFK
23% Draw
47% Falkenbergs
OUR PICK
Falkenbergs FF to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.15
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.78
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.29X4.3322.15
Goals 2.5Over1.62Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.60NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.60
GG
63%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
IFK VarnamoFalkenbergs FF1.3Goals per game1.9
1.7Conceded per game1.3
1.21Points per game1.86
34%Win rate55%
-10Goal difference15
9Form, last 5 (pts)10
IFK Varnamo form
WLWLWA Norrby IF0–3
H Sandviken0–1
A GIF Sundsvall0–1
H Falkenbergs FF1–2
A Oddevold1–2
Falkenbergs FF form
WLWWDH Sandviken2–1
A Orebro SK1–0
H Landskrona BoIS4–3
A IFK Varnamo1–2
H Ostersunds FK0–0
Head to head
2
IFK
0
Draw
3
Falkenbergs
Oct 2026IFK Varnamo – Falkenbergs FF1–2
May 2026Falkenbergs FF – IFK Varnamo3–1
Mar 2025IFK Varnamo – Falkenbergs FF1–0
Oct 2021IFK Varnamo – Falkenbergs FF3–2
Jul 2021IFK Varnamo – Falkenbergs FF0–1
Superettan table
#TeamGPGDPts
1IFK Norrkoping29+4365
2Falkenbergs FF29+1554
3Varbergs BoIS FC29+1148
4Ostersunds FK29+948
5Landskrona BoIS29+1447
6Oddevold29+1245
7Osters IF29+445
8United Nordic29-442
9Sandviken29+538
10IFK Varnamo29-1035
Match preview
Our model makes Falkenbergs FF slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.15 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.40 for IFK Varnamo, 1.78 for Falkenbergs FF), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
IFK Varnamo sit 10th on 35 points; Falkenbergs FF are 2nd on 54.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.