Over 1.5 goals@1.28
Over 1.5
78%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 31Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Shell Energy Stadium
Houston Dynamo
5th · 51 pts0–0FULL TIME
Minnesota United FC
11th · 41 pts49% Houston
24% Draw
27% Minnesota
OUR PICK
Houston Dynamo to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.04
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.18
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.04X4.1523.73
Goals 2.5Over1.84Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.77NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.77
GG
56%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
Houston DynamoMinnesota United FC1.3Goals per game1.6
1.2Conceded per game1.7
1.59Points per game1.24
44%Win rate30%
3Goal difference-4
7Form, last 5 (pts)11
Houston Dynamo form
LWDDDA Portland Timbers3–1
A Seattle Sounders0–1
H Minnesota United FC0–0
H FC Dallas2–2
A San Diego3–3
Minnesota United FC form
WWDWDA Los Angeles FC0–1
H Sporting Kansas City3–1
A Houston Dynamo0–0
H St. Louis City3–2
A Colorado Rapids2–2
Head to head
1
Houston
3
Draw
1
Minnesota
Oct 2026Houston Dynamo – Minnesota United FC0–0
Oct 2026Minnesota United FC – Houston Dynamo2–2
Jun 2025Minnesota United FC – Houston Dynamo3–1
May 2025Houston Dynamo – Minnesota United FC2–0
Jul 2024Houston Dynamo – Minnesota United FC1–1
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo32+351
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Colorado Rapids33-143
9Seattle Sounders33-343
10Real Salt Lake33042
Match preview
Our model makes Houston Dynamo slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.04 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.68 for Houston Dynamo, 1.18 for Minnesota United FC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Houston Dynamo sit 5th on 51 points; Minnesota United FC are 11th on 41.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.