Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 30Sunday, 18 October 2026 · BBVA Compass Stadium
Houston Dynamo
5th · 51 pts2–2FULL TIME
FC Dallas
2nd · 55 pts41% Houston
26% Draw
32% FC
OUR PICK
Houston Dynamo to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.42
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.20
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.42X3.8023.09
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.92
Both scoreGG1.91NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.92
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.91
GG
52%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
Houston DynamoFC Dallas1.3Goals per game1.8
1.2Conceded per game1.5
1.59Points per game1.67
44%Win rate45%
3Goal difference9
7Form, last 5 (pts)8
Houston Dynamo form
WDDDDA Seattle Sounders0–1
H Minnesota United FC0–0
H FC Dallas2–2
A San Diego3–3
A Minnesota United FC2–2
FC Dallas form
DLWDWA Sporting Kansas City1–1
H Columbus Crew0–2
H San Jose Earthquakes3–0
A Houston Dynamo2–2
H Seattle Sounders1–0
Head to head
2
Houston
1
Draw
2
FC
Oct 2026Houston Dynamo – FC Dallas2–2
Mar 2026FC Dallas – Houston Dynamo4–3
Feb 2026FC Dallas – Houston Dynamo1–2
May 2025FC Dallas – Houston Dynamo0–2
Feb 2025Houston Dynamo – FC Dallas1–2
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo32+351
6Los Angeles FC32+1547
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Colorado Rapids33-143
9Seattle Sounders33-343
10Real Salt Lake33042
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Houston Dynamo 41%, the draw 26%, FC Dallas 32%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.42 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.39 for Houston Dynamo, 1.20 for FC Dallas), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Houston Dynamo sit 5th on 51 points; FC Dallas are 2nd on 55.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.