Over 1.5 goals@2.24
Over 1.5
45%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 6Saturday, 7 November 2026
Homeboyz
15th · 4 pts13:00KICK-OFF WAT
Kenya Police
10th · 5 pts30% Homeboyz
37% Draw
33% Kenya
OUR PICK
Draw
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.73
Expected goals
0.73 – 0.78
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.31X2.7323.01
Goals 2.5Over4.97Under1.24
Both scoreGG3.37NG1.39
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.24
Under 2.5
81%
Both teams to score@1.39
NG
72%
Double chance@1.43
X2
70%
Season stats
HomeboyzKenya Police0.5Goals per game0.8
1.0Conceded per game0.8
1.00Points per game1.25
25%Win rate25%
-2Goal difference0
4Form, last 5 (pts)5
Homeboyz form
LLDWA AFC Leopards2–0
H GOR Mahia0–1
H Ulinzi Stars1–1
A Mombasa Elite0–1
Kenya Police form
WDLDLH Ulinzi Stars1–0
A Mombasa Elite0–0
H AFC Leopards1–2
A Migori Youth1–1
A Tusker2–1
Head to head
1
Homeboyz
3
Draw
1
Kenya
May 2026Kenya Police – Homeboyz1–1
Dec 2025Homeboyz – Kenya Police2–2
May 2025Homeboyz – Kenya Police2–1
Dec 2024Kenya Police – Homeboyz1–1
May 2024Homeboyz – Kenya Police1–2
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia5+412
2KCB5+310
3AFC Leopards5+39
43K5-18
5Murang'a SEAL5+27
6Migori Youth4+26
7APS Bomet5+26
8Mara Sugar4+16
9Shabana4+16
10Kenya Police405
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Homeboyz 30%, the draw 37%, Kenya Police 33%.
Our fair price for "Draw" is 2.73 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.5 goals in total (0.73 for Homeboyz, 0.78 for Kenya Police), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Homeboyz sit 15th on 4 points; Kenya Police are 10th on 5.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.