KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 4Wednesday, 28 October 2026

Homeboyz

11th · 4 pts

0–1FULL TIME

GOR Mahia

1st · 12 pts

32% Homeboyz

31% Draw

37% GOR

OUR PICK

GOR Mahia to win

Model probability 37% · fair odds

2.67

Expected goals

0.94 – 1.05

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X213.16X3.2422.67

Goals 2.5Over2.95Under1.47

Both scoreGG2.36NG1.66

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.69

Over 1.5

59%

Over/Under 2.5@1.47

Under 2.5

68%

Both teams to score@1.66

60%

Double chance@1.45

69%

Season stats

HomeboyzGOR Mahia

0.7Goals per game1.8

0.7Conceded per game0.5

1.33Points per game3.00

33%Win rate100%

0Goal difference5

4Form, last 5 (pts)12

Homeboyz form

LLDW

A AFC Leopards2–0

H GOR Mahia0–1

H Ulinzi Stars1–1

A Mombasa Elite0–1

GOR Mahia form

LWWWW

H KCB1–2

A Homeboyz0–1

H Bandari1–0

A APS Bomet0–1

H Murang'a SEAL4–2

Head to head

Homeboyz

Draw

GOR

Oct 2026Homeboyz – GOR Mahia0–1

May 2026Homeboyz – GOR Mahia0–1

Dec 2025GOR Mahia – Homeboyz1–0

Jan 2025Homeboyz – GOR Mahia0–0

Nov 2024GOR Mahia – Homeboyz2–0

FKF Premier League table

#TeamGPGDPts

1GOR Mahia4+512

2KCB4+27

3Murang'a SEAL4+26

4Mara Sugar4+16

5AFC Leopards4+16

6Shabana4+16

7APS Bomet4+25

8Kenya Police405

9Mathare United405

103K4-25

Match preview

Our model sees little between the sides: Homeboyz 32%, the draw 31%, GOR Mahia 37%.

Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.67 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 2.0 goals in total (0.94 for Homeboyz, 1.05 for GOR Mahia), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Homeboyz sit 11th on 4 points; GOR Mahia are 1st on 12.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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