Over 1.5 goals@1.13
Over 1.5
88%
WALPremier League · Matchday 13Friday, 9 October 2026 · Bartons North Wales Stadium
Holywell
16th · 2 pts1–6FULL TIME
The New Saints
1st · 41 pts3% Holywell
8% Draw
88% The
OUR PICK
The New Saints to win
Model probability 88% · fair odds
1.13
Expected goals
0.50 – 3.20
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X2131.48X11.8121.13
Goals 2.5Over1.41Under3.25
Both scoreGG2.48NG1.61
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.41
Over 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.61
NG
62%
Double chance@1.03
X2
97%
Season stats
HolywellThe New Saints1.0Goals per game3.5
3.5Conceded per game0.4
0.14Points per game2.73
0%Win rate87%
-35Goal difference47
1Form, last 5 (pts)13
Holywell form
No recent matches.
The New Saints form
DWWWWH GAP Connah S Quay FC0–0
H Ammanford AFC9–0
A Airbus UK1–2
A Holywell1–6
H Cambrian & Clydach9–0
Head to head
0
Holywell
0
Draw
0
The
These sides haven't met recently.
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1The New Saints15+4741
2GAP Connah S Quay FC15+2335
3Penybont14+1933
4Caernarfon Town15+2329
5Colwyn Bay15+929
6Barry Town15+628
7Airbus UK15+927
8Cardiff MET15+322
9Cambrian & Clydach15-1518
10Llandudno15-616
Match preview
Our model makes The New Saints clear favourites, giving them a 88% chance of winning against 8% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.13 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (0.50 for Holywell, 3.20 for The New Saints), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Holywell sit 16th on 2 points; The New Saints are 1st on 41.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.