Over 1.5 goals@1.07
Over 1.5
93%
WALPremier League · Matchday 16Friday, 6 November 2026
Holywell
16th · 2 pts20:45KICK-OFF WAT
Airbus UK
7th · 27 pts10% Holywell
13% Draw
77% Airbus
OUR PICK
Airbus UK to win
Model probability 77% · fair odds
1.30
Expected goals
1.16 – 3.20
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X219.68X7.7221.30
Goals 2.5Over1.24Under4.97
Both scoreGG1.52NG2.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.24
Over 2.5
81%
Both teams to score@1.52
GG
66%
Double chance@1.12
X2
90%
Season stats
HolywellAirbus UK1.0Goals per game2.1
3.5Conceded per game1.5
0.14Points per game1.80
0%Win rate60%
-35Goal difference9
1Form, last 5 (pts)12
Holywell form
LDLLA Flint Town United5–0
A Llay Miners Welfare3–3
H The New Saints1–6
A Ammanford AFC2–1
Airbus UK form
WWLWWH Caernarfon Town3–2
A Cambrian & Clydach2–3
H The New Saints1–2
A Llandudno1–4
H Trefelin3–0
Head to head
1
Holywell
1
Draw
3
Airbus
Aug 2026Airbus UK – Holywell6–2
Apr 2026Holywell – Airbus UK0–3
Oct 2025Airbus UK – Holywell0–0
Jan 2025Holywell – Airbus UK2–1
Oct 2024Airbus UK – Holywell8–3
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1The New Saints15+4741
2GAP Connah S Quay FC15+2335
3Penybont14+1933
4Caernarfon Town15+2329
5Colwyn Bay15+929
6Barry Town15+628
7Airbus UK15+927
8Cardiff MET15+322
9Cambrian & Clydach15-1518
10Llandudno15-616
Match preview
Our model makes Airbus UK clear favourites, giving them a 77% chance of winning against 13% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.30 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.4 goals in total (1.16 for Holywell, 3.20 for Airbus UK), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Holywell sit 16th on 2 points; Airbus UK are 7th on 27.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.