Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
77%
GER2. Bundesliga · Matchday 8Friday, 16 October 2026 · Holstein-Stadion
Holstein Kiel
17th · 8 pts0–0FULL TIME
Hertha BSC
1st · 28 pts20% Holstein
23% Draw
57% Hertha
OUR PICK
Hertha BSC to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.75
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.84
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.99X4.4121.75
Goals 2.5Over1.86Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.89NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.89
GG
53%
Double chance@1.25
X2
80%
Season stats
Holstein KielHertha BSC1.0Goals per game2.3
1.2Conceded per game0.8
0.80Points per game2.80
10%Win rate90%
-2Goal difference15
5Form, last 5 (pts)13
Holstein Kiel form
LDWDLA SpVgg Greuther Fürth1–0
H 1899 Hoffenheim1–1
H Dynamo Dresden3–0
H Hertha BSC0–0
A Eintracht Braunschweig1–0
Hertha BSC form
WWWDWA 1. FC Kaiserslautern0–3
A SSV Jeddeloh0–2
H Arminia Bielefeld1–0
A Holstein Kiel0–0
H SpVgg Greuther Fürth2–1
Head to head
1
Holstein
2
Draw
2
Hertha
Oct 2026Holstein Kiel – Hertha BSC0–0
Apr 2026Hertha BSC – Holstein Kiel0–1
Nov 2025Holstein Kiel – Hertha BSC0–1
Mar 2024Hertha Berlin – Holstein Kiel2–2
Sept 2023Holstein Kiel – Hertha Berlin2–3
2. Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hertha BSC10+1528
21. FC Nürnberg10+1121
3VfL Wolfsburg10+1119
41. FC Kaiserslautern10+218
51. FC Magdeburg10+817
61. FC Heidenheim10-115
7Arminia Bielefeld10+114
8FC St. Pauli10012
9SpVgg Greuther Fürth10-312
10VfL Osnabrück10-311
Match preview
Our model makes Hertha BSC clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.75 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (0.99 for Holstein Kiel, 1.84 for Hertha BSC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Holstein Kiel sit 17th on 8 points; Hertha BSC are 1st on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.