Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
70%
GER2. Bundesliga · Matchday 9Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Holstein-Stadion
Holstein Kiel
17th · 8 pts3–0FULL TIME
Dynamo Dresden
18th · 8 pts41% Holstein
27% Draw
32% Dynamo
OUR PICK
Holstein Kiel to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.45
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.14
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.45X3.6923.11
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.80
Both scoreGG1.89NG1.99
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.80
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.99
NG
50%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
Holstein KielDynamo Dresden1.0Goals per game1.2
1.2Conceded per game2.0
0.80Points per game0.80
10%Win rate20%
-2Goal difference-8
5Form, last 5 (pts)4
Holstein Kiel form
LDWDLA SpVgg Greuther Fürth1–0
H 1899 Hoffenheim1–1
H Dynamo Dresden3–0
H Hertha BSC0–0
A Eintracht Braunschweig1–0
Dynamo Dresden form
LWLWDA Hannover 962–1
H FC Schalke 042–0
A Holstein Kiel3–0
H 1. FC Magdeburg2–0
A VfL Osnabrück1–1
Head to head
3
Holstein
1
Draw
1
Dynamo
Oct 2026Holstein Kiel – Dynamo Dresden3–0
May 2026Dynamo Dresden – Holstein Kiel2–1
Dec 2025Holstein Kiel – Dynamo Dresden2–1
Apr 2022Dynamo Dresden – Holstein Kiel0–0
Nov 2021Holstein Kiel – Dynamo Dresden2–1
2. Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hertha BSC10+1528
21. FC Nürnberg10+1121
3VfL Wolfsburg10+1119
41. FC Kaiserslautern10+218
51. FC Magdeburg10+817
61. FC Heidenheim10-115
7Arminia Bielefeld10+114
8FC St. Pauli10012
9SpVgg Greuther Fürth10-312
10VfL Osnabrück10-311
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Holstein Kiel 41%, the draw 27%, Dynamo Dresden 32%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.45 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.32 for Holstein Kiel, 1.14 for Dynamo Dresden), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Holstein Kiel sit 17th on 8 points; Dynamo Dresden are 18th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.