Over 1.5 goals@1.41
Over 1.5
71%
GER2. Bundesliga · Matchday 11Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Holstein-Stadion
Holstein Kiel
17th · 8 pts13:00KICK-OFF WAT
Arminia Bielefeld
7th · 14 pts38% Holstein
27% Draw
35% Arminia
OUR PICK
Holstein Kiel to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.61
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.20
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.61X3.6922.90
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.82
Both scoreGG1.98NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.82
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.98
GG
50%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
Holstein KielArminia Bielefeld1.0Goals per game1.6
1.2Conceded per game1.5
0.80Points per game1.40
10%Win rate40%
-2Goal difference1
5Form, last 5 (pts)10
Holstein Kiel form
LDWDLA SpVgg Greuther Fürth1–0
H 1899 Hoffenheim1–1
H Dynamo Dresden3–0
H Hertha BSC0–0
A Eintracht Braunschweig1–0
Arminia Bielefeld form
WLWWDH Eintracht Braunschweig3–1
A Hertha BSC1–0
H VfL Osnabrück2–1
A VfL Bochum0–1
H Rot-Weiß Essen2–2
Head to head
0
Holstein
1
Draw
4
Arminia
Jan 2026Arminia Bielefeld – Holstein Kiel2–2
Aug 2025Holstein Kiel – Arminia Bielefeld0–2
Apr 2023Holstein Kiel – Arminia Bielefeld2–3
Jan 2023Arminia Bielefeld – Holstein Kiel2–1
Sept 2022Arminia Bielefeld – Holstein Kiel4–2
2. Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hertha BSC10+1528
21. FC Nürnberg10+1121
3VfL Wolfsburg10+1119
41. FC Kaiserslautern10+218
51. FC Magdeburg10+817
61. FC Heidenheim10-115
7Arminia Bielefeld10+114
8FC St. Pauli10012
9SpVgg Greuther Fürth10-312
10VfL Osnabrück10-311
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Holstein Kiel 38%, the draw 27%, Arminia Bielefeld 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.61 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.28 for Holstein Kiel, 1.20 for Arminia Bielefeld), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Holstein Kiel sit 17th on 8 points; Arminia Bielefeld are 7th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.