Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
GER3. Liga · Matchday 10Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion
Hoffenheim II
9th · 16 pts2–1FULL TIME
Verl
17th · 12 pts59% Hoffenheim
19% Draw
22% Verl
OUR PICK
Hoffenheim II to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.70
Expected goals
2.37 – 1.40
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.70X5.1924.58
Goals 2.5Over1.38Under3.49
Both scoreGG1.46NG2.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.38
Over 2.5
73%
Both teams to score@1.46
GG
68%
Double chance@1.24
12
81%
Season stats
Hoffenheim IIVerl1.8Goals per game1.4
1.7Conceded per game2.2
1.33Points per game1.00
42%Win rate25%
1Goal difference-9
3Form, last 5 (pts)2
Hoffenheim II form
LLWLLH FC Viktoria Köln0–1
A Waldhof Mannheim4–1
H Verl2–1
A Stuttgart II3–2
A MSV Duisburg3–2
Verl form
LLLDDH SV Wehen1–4
A FC Viktoria Köln3–1
A Hoffenheim II2–1
H SSV Jahn Regensburg2–2
A Fortuna Düsseldorf2–2
Head to head
1
Hoffenheim
0
Draw
2
Verl
Oct 2026Hoffenheim II – Verl2–1
Feb 2026Verl – Hoffenheim II3–1
Sept 2025Hoffenheim II – Verl2–4
3. Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Viktoria Köln12+1626
2MSV Duisburg12+1426
3Rot-Weiß Essen12+724
4FC Saarbrücken12+720
5Alemannia Aachen12+120
6SV Wehen12+618
7FC Ingolstadt 0412-118
8Waldhof Mannheim12+216
9Hoffenheim II12+116
10Fortuna Düsseldorf12-216
Match preview
Our model makes Hoffenheim II clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.70 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (2.37 for Hoffenheim II, 1.40 for Verl), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Hoffenheim II sit 9th on 16 points; Verl are 17th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.