Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
71%
CROHNL · Matchday 12Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Stadion Rujevica
HNK Rijeka
5th · 17 pts1–1FULL TIME
NK Varazdin
3rd · 18 pts39% HNK
27% Draw
34% NK
OUR PICK
HNK Rijeka to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.54
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.19
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.54X3.7122.97
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.84
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.97
GG
51%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
HNK RijekaNK Varazdin1.7Goals per game1.4
1.4Conceded per game0.9
1.70Points per game1.64
50%Win rate45%
3Goal difference5
7Form, last 5 (pts)5
HNK Rijeka form
DLWWLH NK Varazdin1–1
A Dinamo Zagreb2–1
A Karlovac 19191–4
A Rudes1–2
A NK Slaven Belupo4–1
NK Varazdin form
DDLLWA HNK Rijeka1–1
H NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1–1
H NK Slaven Belupo1–2
A HNK Hajduk Split1–0
A NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0–1
Head to head
1
HNK
1
Draw
3
NK
Nov 2026HNK Rijeka – NK Varazdin1–1
Aug 2026NK Varazdin – HNK Rijeka2–0
Apr 2026NK Varazdin – HNK Rijeka1–0
Feb 2026HNK Rijeka – NK Varazdin3–1
Nov 2025NK Varazdin – HNK Rijeka1–0
HNL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1HNK Hajduk Split12+1526
2Dinamo Zagreb11+1122
3NK Varazdin11+518
4NK Osijek11+317
5HNK Rijeka10+317
6Istra 196112+316
7NK Slaven Belupo12-1113
8Rudes12-1213
9NK Lokomotiva Zagreb11-411
10HNK Gorica12-137
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: HNK Rijeka 39%, the draw 27%, NK Varazdin 34%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.54 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.31 for HNK Rijeka, 1.19 for NK Varazdin), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
HNK Rijeka sit 5th on 17 points; NK Varazdin are 3rd on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.