Over 1.5 goals@1.35
Over 1.5
74%
CROHNL · Matchday 10Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Stadion Poljud
HNK Hajduk Split
1st · 26 pts1–0FULL TIME
NK Varazdin
4th · 19 pts53% HNK
25% Draw
23% NK
OUR PICK
HNK Hajduk Split to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.90
Expected goals
1.64 – 0.99
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.90X4.0624.38
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.96
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.96
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.97
GG
51%
Double chance@1.30
1X
77%
Season stats
HNK Hajduk SplitNK Varazdin2.2Goals per game1.3
0.9Conceded per game0.9
2.17Points per game1.58
67%Win rate42%
15Goal difference5
10Form, last 5 (pts)5
HNK Hajduk Split form
WDWWWH HNK Gorica5–0
A Istra 19612–2
A FC Thun0–1
H NK Varazdin1–0
H Ajax2–1
NK Varazdin form
DDLLWA HNK Rijeka1–1
H NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1–1
H NK Slaven Belupo1–2
A HNK Hajduk Split1–0
A NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0–1
Head to head
2
HNK
2
Draw
1
NK
Oct 2026HNK Hajduk Split – NK Varazdin1–0
Aug 2026NK Varazdin – HNK Hajduk Split2–1
May 2026HNK Hajduk Split – NK Varazdin3–1
Feb 2026NK Varazdin – HNK Hajduk Split1–1
Nov 2025HNK Hajduk Split – NK Varazdin1–1
HNL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1HNK Hajduk Split12+1526
2Dinamo Zagreb11+1122
3NK Osijek12+520
4NK Varazdin12+519
5HNK Rijeka11+318
6Istra 196112+316
7NK Slaven Belupo12-1113
8Rudes12-1213
9NK Lokomotiva Zagreb12-611
10HNK Gorica12-137
Match preview
Our model makes HNK Hajduk Split slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.90 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.64 for HNK Hajduk Split, 0.99 for NK Varazdin), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
HNK Hajduk Split sit 1st on 26 points; NK Varazdin are 4th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.