Over 1.5 goals@1.46
Over 1.5
68%
WORUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Stadion Poljud
HNK Hajduk Split
8th · 6 pts2–1FULL TIME
Ajax
13th · 3 pts39% HNK
28% Draw
33% Ajax
OUR PICK
HNK Hajduk Split to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.58
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.13
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.58X3.5922.99
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.73
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.73
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.93
NG
52%
Double chance@1.39
12
72%
Season stats
HNK Hajduk SplitAjax1.5Goals per game1.5
0.5Conceded per game1.0
3.00Points per game1.50
100%Win rate50%
2Goal difference1
6Form, last 5 (pts)3
HNK Hajduk Split form
WDWWWH HNK Gorica5–0
A Istra 19612–2
A FC Thun0–1
H NK Varazdin1–0
H Ajax2–1
Ajax form
WWWWLH AZ Alkmaar1–0
A Sparta Rotterdam1–2
H Atalanta2–0
A Groningen2–5
A HNK Hajduk Split2–1
Head to head
1
HNK
0
Draw
0
Ajax
Oct 2026HNK Hajduk Split – Ajax2–1
UEFA Europa Conference League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: HNK Hajduk Split 39%, the draw 28%, Ajax 33%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.58 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.24 for HNK Hajduk Split, 1.13 for Ajax), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
HNK Hajduk Split sit 8th on 6 points; Ajax are 13th on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.