Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
71%
CROHNL · Matchday 9Friday, 9 October 2026 · Gradski stadion Velika Gorica
HNK Gorica
10th · 7 pts1–2FULL TIME
Rudes
8th · 13 pts38% HNK
27% Draw
35% Rudes
OUR PICK
HNK Gorica to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.63
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.20
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.63X3.6822.88
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.81
Both scoreGG1.99NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.81
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.99
GG
50%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
HNK GoricaRudes0.6Goals per game1.3
1.7Conceded per game2.3
0.58Points per game1.08
8%Win rate33%
-13Goal difference-12
5Form, last 5 (pts)10
HNK Gorica form
LDDLDA HNK Hajduk Split5–0
H NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0–0
A NK Osijek1–1
H Rudes1–2
H Bravo3–3
Rudes form
WWLWDH Dinamo Zagreb1–0
A NK Osijek0–1
H HNK Rijeka1–2
A HNK Gorica1–2
H NK Slaven Belupo2–2
Head to head
3
HNK
0
Draw
2
Rudes
Oct 2026HNK Gorica – Rudes1–2
Oct 2025Rudes – HNK Gorica0–6
Jul 2024HNK Gorica – Rudes3–0
May 2024HNK Gorica – Rudes2–1
Mar 2024Rudes – HNK Gorica2–1
HNL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1HNK Hajduk Split12+1526
2Dinamo Zagreb11+1122
3NK Osijek12+520
4NK Varazdin12+519
5HNK Rijeka11+318
6Istra 196112+316
7NK Slaven Belupo12-1113
8Rudes12-1213
9NK Lokomotiva Zagreb12-611
10HNK Gorica12-137
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: HNK Gorica 38%, the draw 27%, Rudes 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.63 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.27 for HNK Gorica, 1.20 for Rudes), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
HNK Gorica sit 10th on 7 points; Rudes are 8th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.