Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
GER2. Bundesliga · Matchday 7Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Olympiastadion
Hertha BSC
1st · 28 pts2–1FULL TIME
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
9th · 12 pts72% Hertha
17% Draw
11% SpVgg
OUR PICK
Hertha BSC to win
Model probability 72% · fair odds
1.39
Expected goals
2.39 – 0.82
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.39X5.9429.05
Goals 2.5Over1.61Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.97
GG
51%
Double chance@1.12
1X
89%
Season stats
Hertha BSCSpVgg Greuther Fürth2.3Goals per game1.3
0.8Conceded per game1.6
2.80Points per game1.20
90%Win rate30%
15Goal difference-3
13Form, last 5 (pts)7
Hertha BSC form
WWWDWA 1. FC Kaiserslautern0–3
A SSV Jeddeloh0–2
H Arminia Bielefeld1–0
A Holstein Kiel0–0
H SpVgg Greuther Fürth2–1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth form
WLWLLH Holstein Kiel1–0
A VfL Osnabrück3–0
H Eintracht Braunschweig2–0
A Hertha BSC2–1
A VfB Stuttgart5–0
Head to head
0
Hertha
0
Draw
0
SpVgg
These sides haven't met recently.
2. Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hertha BSC10+1528
21. FC Nürnberg10+1121
3VfL Wolfsburg10+1119
41. FC Kaiserslautern10+218
51. FC Magdeburg10+817
61. FC Heidenheim10-115
7Arminia Bielefeld10+114
8FC St. Pauli10012
9SpVgg Greuther Fürth10-312
10VfL Osnabrück10-311
Match preview
Our model makes Hertha BSC clear favourites, giving them a 72% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.39 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (2.39 for Hertha BSC, 0.82 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Hertha BSC sit 1st on 28 points; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are 9th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.