Over 1.5 goals@1.13
Over 1.5
89%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 10Friday, 9 October 2026 · Polman Stadion
Heracles
1st · 29 pts3–0FULL TIME
Waalwijk
13th · 16 pts64% Heracles
18% Draw
18% Waalwijk
OUR PICK
Heracles to win
Model probability 64% · fair odds
1.57
Expected goals
2.48 – 1.28
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.57X5.5025.46
Goals 2.5Over1.38Under3.37
Both scoreGG1.51NG2.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.38
Over 2.5
72%
Both teams to score@1.51
GG
66%
Double chance@1.22
12
82%
Season stats
HeraclesWaalwijk3.1Goals per game1.7
1.2Conceded per game1.5
2.42Points per game1.23
75%Win rate23%
23Goal difference3
11Form, last 5 (pts)3
Heracles form
LDWWDA De Treffers1–0
A NAC Breda1–1
A MVV1–5
H Waalwijk3–0
A Helmond Sport2–2
Waalwijk form
LDDDLH Almere City FC1–2
A Barendrecht2–2
A De Graafschap1–1
H FC Volendam1–1
A Heracles3–0
Head to head
2
Heracles
2
Draw
1
Waalwijk
Oct 2026Heracles – Waalwijk3–0
Aug 2025Heracles – Waalwijk3–1
Apr 2025Waalwijk – Heracles0–0
Nov 2024Heracles – Waalwijk2–2
May 2024Heracles – Waalwijk0–5
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Heracles clear favourites, giving them a 64% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.57 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (2.48 for Heracles, 1.28 for Waalwijk), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Heracles sit 1st on 29 points; Waalwijk are 13th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.