Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
CHNSuper League · Matchday 29Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium
Henan Jianye
14th · 28 pts3–4FULL TIME
Beijing Guoan
3rd · 47 pts29% Henan
26% Draw
45% Beijing
OUR PICK
Beijing Guoan to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.24
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.46
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.41X3.8422.24
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.92
Both scoreGG1.92NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.92
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.92
GG
52%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
Henan JianyeBeijing Guoan1.3Goals per game2.0
1.4Conceded per game1.2
0.97Points per game1.62
28%Win rate48%
-4Goal difference21
3Form, last 5 (pts)11
Henan Jianye form
LLDDDH Beijing Guoan3–4
H Tianjin Teda0–1
A Sichuan Jiuniu2–2
A Wuhan Three Towns1–1
H Chengdu Better City0–0
Beijing Guoan form
DDWWWA Port FC4–4
H Jeonbuk Motors2–2
A Henan Jianye3–4
H Qingdao Youth Island1–0
A Buriram United0–1
Head to head
2
Henan
0
Draw
3
Beijing
Oct 2026Henan Jianye – Beijing Guoan3–4
May 2026Beijing Guoan – Henan Jianye1–2
Dec 2025Beijing Guoan – Henan Jianye3–0
Sept 2025Henan Jianye – Beijing Guoan2–0
Apr 2025Beijing Guoan – Henan Jianye1–0
Super League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Chengdu Better City29+1652
2Dalian Zhixing29+349
3Beijing Guoan29+2147
4Shandong Luneng29+1044
5SHANGHAI SIPG29+1442
6Yunnan Yukun29-340
7Qingdao Youth Island29-639
8Shanghai Shenhua29+1337
9Chongqing Tongliang Long29-336
10Hangzhou Greentown29-334
Match preview
Our model makes Beijing Guoan slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.24 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.13 for Henan Jianye, 1.46 for Beijing Guoan), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Henan Jianye sit 14th on 28 points; Beijing Guoan are 3rd on 47.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.