Over 1.5 goals@1.10
Over 1.5
91%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 11Friday, 16 October 2026 · Lavans Stadion
Helmond Sport
17th · 12 pts0–2FULL TIME
NAC Breda
6th · 21 pts43% Helmond
20% Draw
36% NAC
OUR PICK
Helmond Sport to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.31
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.94
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.31X4.8822.77
Goals 2.5Over1.30Under4.10
Both scoreGG1.33NG3.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.30
Over 2.5
77%
Both teams to score@1.33
GG
75%
Double chance@1.26
12
80%
Season stats
Helmond SportNAC Breda1.8Goals per game1.9
2.2Conceded per game1.7
0.92Points per game1.75
23%Win rate50%
-5Goal difference3
4Form, last 5 (pts)11
Helmond Sport form
WLLLLH FC Eindhoven3–2
H Willem II3–4
A Jong AZ5–4
H NAC Breda0–2
A FC OSS3–1
NAC Breda form
WDWWDA JOS Watergraafsmeer1–3
H Heracles1–1
A Helmond Sport0–2
H MVV1–0
A Vitesse2–2
Head to head
1
Helmond
2
Draw
2
NAC
Oct 2026Helmond Sport – NAC Breda0–2
Jan 2024Helmond Sport – NAC Breda1–0
Oct 2023NAC Breda – Helmond Sport1–1
Jan 2023Helmond Sport – NAC Breda2–2
Aug 2022NAC Breda – Helmond Sport1–0
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Helmond Sport 43%, the draw 20%, NAC Breda 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.31 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.1 goals in total (2.13 for Helmond Sport, 1.94 for NAC Breda), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Helmond Sport sit 17th on 12 points; NAC Breda are 6th on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.