Over 1.5 goals@1.08
Over 1.5
93%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 9Friday, 2 October 2026 · Lavans Stadion
Helmond Sport
17th · 12 pts2–2FULL TIME
Heracles
1st · 29 pts16% Helmond
16% Draw
68% Heracles
OUR PICK
Heracles to win
Model probability 68% · fair odds
1.47
Expected goals
1.40 – 2.90
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X216.20X6.2921.47
Goals 2.5Over1.25Under4.72
Both scoreGG1.40NG3.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.25
Over 2.5
80%
Both teams to score@1.40
GG
71%
Double chance@1.19
12
84%
Season stats
Helmond SportHeracles1.8Goals per game3.1
2.2Conceded per game1.2
0.92Points per game2.42
23%Win rate75%
-5Goal difference23
4Form, last 5 (pts)11
Helmond Sport form
WLLLLH FC Eindhoven3–2
H Willem II3–4
A Jong AZ5–4
H NAC Breda0–2
A FC OSS3–1
Heracles form
WLDWWH FC OSS2–0
A De Treffers1–0
A NAC Breda1–1
A MVV1–5
H Waalwijk3–0
Head to head
0
Helmond
1
Draw
3
Heracles
Oct 2026Helmond Sport – Heracles2–2
Aug 2023Heracles – Helmond Sport2–0
Apr 2023Helmond Sport – Heracles0–1
Sept 2022Heracles – Helmond Sport2–0
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Heracles clear favourites, giving them a 68% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.47 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.3 goals in total (1.40 for Helmond Sport, 2.90 for Heracles), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Helmond Sport sit 17th on 12 points; Heracles are 1st on 29.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.